Tag Archives: Carly Fiorina

The ”electability” canard.Why the Polls of today don’t matter.

RRD:One of the most oft repeated arguments for Romney(just as it was for Mccain)is the “electability” argument.
Or as I call it:the “electability myth”.
The myth is not that there is no such thing as real,actual electibility,with the flip side being that “anyone can win”.

The myth is that a candidate’s electibility can be determined nine months in advance of a election.

People who have no qualms about saying that ”the Teaparty will just have to fall in line”,nine months in advance of the election,in defiance of the Teaparty’s current ”anyone but Romney” stance,
will nevertheless treat today’s polling data showing Romney as electable,(& conversely showing Gingrich,Paul,Santorum as unelectable) as if it was the Law of Conservation of Energy.
Something that is immutable.
The moods & whims of the ”undecideds” are afforded similar awe.
One wonders why we should bother having elections at all?
Why not just take a poll on the day of the nominating convention & declare whoever leads as President?
Any Pollster worth his salt will tell you that you cannot predict the outcome of a election months in advance,(or even weeks ,if it is remotely close),but all that gets tossed out the window by the Rockefeller Republicans who claim that they would like to be ”pure”,but alas,”elections are won in the center”.

The actual motive behind many of the ”Romney is electable” mantras(fn1) is to dismiss anyone not LEFT OF CENTER as unelectable (both Mccain & Romney were left of center on Global Warming,Romney is additionally left of center on the Individual Mandate).
Having lost the philosophical argument,Rockeffeller Republicans have adopted a new “practical” argument:”Elections are won from the center”.Except that their “centrists” keep going down in flames.(Murkowski and some others being notable exceptions).
Carly Fiorina was supposed to be ”electable”.Along with Meg Whitman.Along with Arlen Specter,(versus the unelectable,since elected Sen.Pat Toomey.)
”Obamacan” Charlie Crist(whose advisors are now advising Romney)
was a supposedly unbeatable candidate,versus the ”nice,but unelectable” Sen.Rubio.
The result?
Crist,a pathological liar & flip flopper,hated by the base,lost the nomination & RAN AS A Independent,and,in what must be the most brazen act of narcissism outside of the White House, instructed his Democratic opponent to ”be unselfish” & drop out of the race.(His opponent,Meek,displayed more self-respect & courage than some ”conservatives” who have shilled for Romney & basically told Crist,& probably also Bill Clinton if the rumors are true, to go to hell).

I do not trust polls.Particularly when they are nearly a year in advance of the elections.
This does not mean that a honest person cannot look at the polls and conclude that Romney is the candidate who is most likely to beat Obama.But they cannot treat their extrapolation as if it were a fact of nature.Nor can they say that ”Since the polls say, that IF the election were held today,Gingrich etal would lose”,therefore ”Gingrich etal CAN’T win”,because the ELECTIONS ARE NOT BEING HELD TODAY.You cannot know what people will do if given the choice,in the real world,of GOP candidate X vs Obama.
You can make guesses & projections,but THAT IS ALL YOU CAN DO.A ”hypothetical matchup” does not take into account:debates between the Republican and the Democrat,errors or gaffes by the candidates,the effect of ads that have yet to run,(both positive & negative),real & invented scandals.
etc.
Anyone who claims to know the outcome of a election,with certainty,is a liar or a fool.
One can make predictions about the outcome.
But one cannot anoint candidate X as ”the only candidate who can beat Obama”.
Teaparty members,Libertarians,Conservatives & Objectivists should take any claims of ”electability” with a grain of salt.
They should not dismiss them,but they should scrutinize them carefully to see if they have a rational justification.They should also study the history of elections to gain context on some of these claims.

Footnotes:

1.Not all.But when you have “Progressive” Republicans,and establishment Republicans consistently predicting defeat for Toomey,Rubio,Reagan etc while ignoring the fact that Fiorina,Ford,Dole,G.H.W.Bush & Mccain went down in flames, it is legitimate to question whether they are ”just interested in winning”, or whether they want Rockefeller Republicans whether they win or lose.

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An open letter to Sen.John McCain concerning Christine O’Donnell,Hobbits,& the debt ceiling.

RRD:I recently read your latest comments regarding the debt ceiling debate;specifically regarding Christine O’Donnell.Since you are confused on this–as on so many other things–I thought I would clear up your misperceptions(or your lies) on this issue.     You are quoted in The Hill as saying:    ….”This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell into GOP Senate nominees”….     GOP ponders debt repercussions – The Hill’s Blog Briefing Room   http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/174433-gop-ponders-whether-debt-fight-hurts-party     The Hill goes on to note:    …”’Some Republicans blame those weak candidates, elected as Tea Party favorites in GOP primaries, helped the party lose a chance at winning control of the Senate.”….    RRD:Let me explain basic math to such people.    If the GOP had won in Delaware with Mike Castle,that would have given them one seat.   If the GOP had picked up Nevada that would have given them one seat.   If the GOP had picked up Colorado that would have given them one seat.  1+1+1=3  The GOP was 12 seats short.It is now 6 votes short.If the GOP had not nominated Angle,Buck or O’Donnell–& had won all three races–it would still be three seats short.   This means that the GOP would not have won control of the Senate.     Now let us turn to the other races:   Carly Fiorina–whom you endorsed over Chuck Devore,the Hobbit’s choice–was exactly the sort of RINO who was supposed to win.(As opposed to that silly Devore).She lost 52/42 to BARBARA (Ah!But Devore would have lost by even more,at least with Fiorina we LOST BY TEN POINTS!YAY!)    By contrast Hobbits(fn1):Ron Johnson,Rand Paul,Mike Lee,Pat Toomey,and Marco Rubio won their races.   Paul,Toomey,Rubio & Lee were not the establishment picks.    Lindsey Graham declared that Toomey could not win.  Orrin Hatch said(fn2):    ….”I don’t think there is anybody in the world who believes he can get elected senator there,” ….. “Asked if the NRSC would back Toomey, Hatch said, “I don’t think so” and that the party should look for “someone who can win there.”[RRDIn the same article Graham suggested Ridge] …. “Hatch later equivocated and said, “I’m not saying he can’t win —nobody gave me a chance when I ran.”    Indeed the NRSC(the National Republican Senatorial Committee) backed Specter,who switched to the Democrats–and in the end–could not beat Joe Sestak for the Democratic nomination.    Crack political thinking Mccain?    Then there’s Rubio.You remember Rubio,Senator Mccain?You endorsed the “Obamacan” Charlie Crist to reward him for endorsing you in 2008.Some believe that he betrayed Giuliani in the process(fn3).But that shouldn’t disturb your code of “honor”.After all,it does permit you to do “whatever’s necessary to win”.(fn4) Against Republicans that is.    But I digress.   In any event,after the NRSC endorsed Crist over Rubio(it’s almost unheard of for the NRSC to endorse a candidate unless they are the incumbent for that seat),the Hobbits gave Rubio the nomination.Crist then declared himself a independent candidate,& in a amazing display of narcissism,demanded the Democrat Kendrick Meek drop out of the race.   Marco Rubio,who “could not win”–according to the “crack political thinking” of the NRSC–won 48% to 29% for Crist,& 20% for  Meek.    Having gotten the “Those tricksy Hobbits cost us cost us control of the Senate”,canard out of the way,let us turn to the underlying assumption:i.e. Hobbits/Tea Partiers care about whether Republicans win elections.   We don’t.   We care about whether Obamacare is repealed.   We care about whether The United States Of America,collapses into Weimar Germany,replete with hyperinflation and mass unemployment.   What we do not care about is the Republican Party.The Republican Party is at best,a useful tool for achieving our goals.At worst,it is a obstacle or a threat.If it cannot be reformed then it will need to be replaced.   Let’s take the case of Mike Castle.Castle,would,in all likelihood,have cruised to a easy victory over Democrat Chris Coons.Delaware IS a bluish state.Yet,knowing this,I & others waged a crusade to help O’Donnell defeat Castle.Indeed,I went further & vowed to help Coons defeat Castle,if Castle got the nomination.   Now why would I do that?   Answer:Why does a chess player sacrifice a rook,or a knight,to checkmate his opponent.(Or to protect his King or Queen?)  The answer is;because he understands that the goal is winning the game.Not preserving a particular chess piece.  Except that the “game”  in this case is not a game.And the goal is not giving the Republicans control of the Senate.  Republicans had control of the House,the Senate,& the Presidency.  What did they do with it?  Under the Rovian strategy(fn5) of “compassionate conservatism” (which was neither),they added massively to our debt,and planned to adopt a neo-conservative philosophy of social welfare spending and social conservatism.   The problem with Mike Castle was not that he was “impure”,or even that he was a RINO.Nor even–as Christine O’Donnell called him–a “Super-Rino”. He wasn’t. He was a Mega-RINO.(In order:Super,Hyper,Mega)   This is a man who was one of two Republican votes,(not two in the House.TWO.Out of hundreds)to vote for the insane DISCLOSE act(fn6).The DISCLOSE act,which was supposedly intended to “merely” require the disclosure of campaign donations,in fact was closer to a 21st century version of the Alien and Sedition act.It was discrimatory against new political groups(read Tea party groups),placed few restrictions on unions,and was written in a way to permit harrassment of bloggers and to destroy online anonymity. In short it was a effort to censor,& to destroy the Tea Party. What on earth would possess me to support my enemy?   Losing the Delaware Senate seat was more than compensated for,by the message it sent to other ,more “normal” RINOS:There is a line,and you cross it–even if it costs us the seat–you’re gone.    And that,Senator Mccain,is what you didn’t get in 2010,what you don’t get in 2011,and what you will probably never get.  So,why then am I writing this to you?  I’M NOT.  Open Letters are often used as a rhetorical device.   I’m writing this for anyone whose mind is open to my argument.    fn.1   On a side note the question must be raised as to whether your insistence on singling out the Hobbits for condemnation(when in fact,the hobbits were only one of several races battling Mordor,e.g.Dwarves,Elves,Men etc.) implies anti-hobbitism on your part.Have you considered that your anti-hobbit views might be explained by MicroAnthropophobia?You might wish to consult a mental health professional on this matter.     fn2   Hatch: Toomey has no shot in Pa. – Manu Raju – POLITICO.com  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21869.html      fn3.   It is rumored that Crist promised his support to Giuliani,& then switched because of some more promising bribe offered by Mccain.     fn4.   McCain: I don’t change my positions « Hot Air   http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/20/mccain-i-dont-change-my-positions/    “Well, I don’t know. But I’ve always done whatever’s necessary to win,”    fn5  This strategy,which Rove had worked out so very cleverly,and which was supposed to lead to a 50 yr reign of the GOP,collasped in 2006 due to the mismangement of the war in Iraq and the abandonment of the Republican party by the group of Republican voters now known as the Tea Party(or the hobbits). What Rove did not understand is that voters have free will.     fn6    theneointellectual: Why Mike Castle must be defeated whatever it takes #tcot #teaparty #DESEN   http://theneointellectual.blogspot.com/2010/09/why-mike-castle-must-be-defeated.html     theneointellectual: Jay Cost’s argument for Castle is flawed #tcot #DESEN   http://theneointellectual.blogspot.com/2010/09/jay-cost-argument-for-castle-is-flawed.html                  This blog post is protected by copyright under the Creative Commons Non-Commercial,Non-Derivative License 3.0   Copies made be made(in addition to the terms of Fair Use)so long as they are for Non-Commercial use,& derivative works are not made.         
An open letter to Sen.John McCain concerning Christine O’Donnell,Hobbits,& the debt ceiling. by Robert Reed Daly is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at http://fightingstatism.posterous.com/.

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An open letter to Sen.John McCain concerning Christine O’Donnell,Hobbits,& the debt ceiling.

RRD:I recently read your latest comments regarding the debt ceiling debate;specifically regarding Christine O’Donnell.Since you are confused on this–as on so many other things–I thought I would clear up your misperceptions(or your lies) on this issue.     You are quoted in The Hill as saying:    ….”This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell into GOP Senate nominees”….     GOP ponders debt repercussions – The Hill’s Blog Briefing Room   http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/174433-gop-ponders-whether-debt-fight-hurts-party     The Hill goes on to note:    …”’Some Republicans blame those weak candidates, elected as Tea Party favorites in GOP primaries, helped the party lose a chance at winning control of the Senate.”….    RRD:Let me explain basic math to such people.    If the GOP had won in Delaware with Mike Castle,that would have given them one seat.   If the GOP had picked up Nevada that would have given them one seat.   If the GOP had picked up Colorado that would have given them one seat.  1+1+1=3  The GOP was 12 seats short.It is now 6 votes short.If the GOP had not nominated Angle,Buck or O’Donnell–& had won all three races–it would still be three seats short.   This means that the GOP would not have won control of the Senate.     Now let us turn to the other races:   Carly Fiorina–whom you endorsed over Chuck Devore,the Hobbit’s choice–was exactly the sort of RINO who was supposed to win.(As opposed to that silly Devore).She lost 52/42 to BARBARA (Ah!But Devore would have lost by even more,at least with Fiorina we LOST BY TEN POINTS!YAY!)    By contrast Hobbits(fn1):Ron Johnson,Rand Paul,Mike Lee,Pat Toomey,and Marco Rubio won their races.   Paul,Toomey,Rubio & Lee were not the establishment picks.    Lindsey Graham declared that Toomey could not win.  Orrin Hatch said(fn2):    ….”I don’t think there is anybody in the world who believes he can get elected senator there,” ….. “Asked if the NRSC would back Toomey, Hatch said, “I don’t think so” and that the party should look for “someone who can win there.”[RRDIn the same article Graham suggested Ridge] …. “Hatch later equivocated and said, “I’m not saying he can’t win —nobody gave me a chance when I ran.”    Indeed the NRSC(the National Republican Senatorial Committee) backed Specter,who switched to the Democrats–and in the end–could not beat Joe Sestak for the Democratic nomination.    Crack political thinking Mccain?    Then there’s Rubio.You remember Rubio,Senator Mccain?You endorsed the “Obamacan” Charlie Crist to reward him for endorsing you in 2008.Some believe that he betrayed Giuliani in the process(fn3).But that shouldn’t disturb your code of “honor”.After all,it does permit you to do “whatever’s necessary to win”.(fn4) Against Republicans that is.    But I digress.   In any event,after the NRSC endorsed Crist over Rubio(it’s almost unheard of for the NRSC to endorse a candidate unless they are the incumbent for that seat),the Hobbits gave Rubio the nomination.Crist then declared himself a independent candidate,& in a amazing display of narcissism,demanded the Democrat Kendrick Meek drop out of the race.   Marco Rubio,who “could not win”–according to the “crack political thinking” of the NRSC–won 48% to 29% for Crist,& 20% for  Meek.    Having gotten the “Those tricksy Hobbits cost us cost us control of the Senate”,canard out of the way,let us turn to the underlying assumption:i.e. Hobbits/Tea Partiers care about whether Republicans win elections.   We don’t.   We care about whether Obamacare is repealed.   We care about whether The United States Of America,collapses into Weimar Germany,replete with hyperinflation and mass unemployment.   What we do not care about is the Republican Party.The Republican Party is at best,a useful tool for achieving our goals.At worst,it is a obstacle or a threat.If it cannot be reformed then it will need to be replaced.   Let’s take the case of Mike Castle.Castle,would,in all likelihood,have cruised to a easy victory over Democrat Chris Coons.Delaware IS a bluish state.Yet,knowing this,I & others waged a crusade to help O’Donnell defeat Castle.Indeed,I went further & vowed to help Coons defeat Castle,if Castle got the nomination.   Now why would I do that?   Answer:Why does a chess player sacrifice a rook,or a knight,to checkmate his opponent.(Or to protect his King or Queen?)  The answer is;because he understands that the goal is winning the game.Not preserving a particular chess piece.  Except that the “game”  in this case is not a game.And the goal is not giving the Republicans control of the Senate.  Republicans had control of the House,the Senate,& the Presidency.  What did they do with it?  Under the Rovian strategy(fn5) of “compassionate conservatism” (which was neither),they added massively to our debt,and planned to adopt a neo-conservative philosophy of social welfare spending and social conservatism.   The problem with Mike Castle was not that he was “impure”,or even that he was a RINO.Nor even–as Christine O’Donnell called him–a “Super-Rino”. He wasn’t. He was a Mega-RINO.(In order:Super,Hyper,Mega)   This is a man who was one of two Republican votes,(not two in the House.TWO.Out of hundreds)to vote for the insane DISCLOSE act(fn6).The DISCLOSE act,which was supposedly intended to “merely” require the disclosure of campaign donations,in fact was closer to a 21st century version of the Alien and Sedition act.It was discrimatory against new political groups(read Tea party groups),placed few restrictions on unions,and was written in a way to permit harrassment of bloggers and to destroy online anonymity. In short it was a effort to censor,& to destroy the Tea Party. What on earth would possess me to support my enemy?   Losing the Delaware Senate seat was more than compensated for,by the message it sent to other ,more “normal” RINOS:There is a line,and you cross it–even if it costs us the seat–you’re gone.    And that,Senator Mccain,is what you didn’t get in 2010,what you don’t get in 2011,and what you will probably never get.  So,why then am I writing this to you?  I’M NOT.  Open Letters are often used as a rhetorical device.   I’m writing this for anyone whose mind is open to my argument.    fn.1   On a side note the question must be raised as to whether your insistence on singling out the Hobbits for condemnation(when in fact,the hobbits were only one of several races battling Mordor,e.g.Dwarves,Elves,Men etc.) implies anti-hobbitism on your part.Have you considered that your anti-hobbit views might be explained by MicroAnthropophobia?You might wish to consult a mental health professional on this matter.     fn2   Hatch: Toomey has no shot in Pa. – Manu Raju – POLITICO.com  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21869.html      fn3.   It is rumored that Crist promised his support to Giuliani,& then switched because of some more promising bribe offered by Mccain.     fn4.   McCain: I don’t change my positions « Hot Air   http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/20/mccain-i-dont-change-my-positions/    “Well, I don’t know. But I’ve always done whatever’s necessary to win,”    fn5  This strategy,which Rove had worked out so very cleverly,and which was supposed to lead to a 50 yr reign of the GOP,collasped in 2006 due to the mismangement of the war in Iraq and the abandonment of the Republican party by the group of Republican voters now known as the Tea Party(or the hobbits). What Rove did not understand is that voters have free will.     fn6    theneointellectual: Why Mike Castle must be defeated whatever it takes #tcot #teaparty #DESEN   http://theneointellectual.blogspot.com/2010/09/why-mike-castle-must-be-defeated.html     theneointellectual: Jay Cost’s argument for Castle is flawed #tcot #DESEN   http://theneointellectual.blogspot.com/2010/09/jay-cost-argument-for-castle-is-flawed.html                  This blog post is protected by copyright under the Creative Commons Non-Commercial,Non-Derivative License 3.0   Copies made be made(in addition to the terms of Fair Use)so long as they are for Non-Commercial use,& derivative works are not made.          Creative Commons License
An open letter to Sen.John McCain concerning Christine O’Donnell,Hobbits,& the debt ceiling. by Robert Reed Daly is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at http://fightingstatism.posterous.com/.

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